In 2016, Bulgaria will generate telecom services revenue of US$1.1bn (Lv2.0bn), or 2.3% of the country's nominal GDP, a 0.9% decline in local currency from 2015. Going forward, market revenue is expected to return to growth in 2017 after several years of revenue decline, mainly driven by fixed broadband and mobile data revenue growth, enabled by wider next-generation fixed and mobile networks coverage and the upsell of multiplay offers by Bulgarian operators. Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue grow at a 2.4% CAGR (0.5% in local currency) over the 2015-2020 period. The mobile segment will continue to dominate the telecom market during the 2016-2020 period, stimulated by increasing demand for fast mobile broadband Internet, intensive development of 3G and 4G networks, and growing adoption of smartphones, supported with device subsidization offers. Continued decline in fixed circuit-switched will negatively impact the fixed segment, as fixed voice services will be gradually substituted by mobile voice and VoIP services.
-The top two operators, Mobiltel and Vivacom, which both provide mobile, fixed and pay-TV, will account for 59.4% of total telecom service revenue in Bulgaria, or $0.6bn in 2016. Mobiltel will lead the mobile market, while Vivacom will dominate the fixed-line segment.
-Operators' focus on converged offerings and 4G expansion plans will further intensify the competitiveness in the country's heavily fragmented telecom market.
-Adoption of 3G technologies will reach 53.5% of the mobile subscription base in 2016 and will continue to increase in forthcoming years; Pyramid Research projects this will lose ground starting in 2019 owing to increasing availability of LTE networks and devices. LTE subscriptions will reach 4.1m, 34.9% of all mobile subscriptions in Bulgaria by 2020, compared with 0.8m (8%) in 2016.
-The total number of fixed access lines will decline by an estimated 3.7% in 2016 to 2.3m and further to 2.0m by year-end 2020 owing to the continuous decline in circuit-switched lines.
-FTTH/B will account for the largest share of broadband lines by 2020 and will grow by 0.2m lines from 2016 to 2020, to account for 41.8% of the total access lines - thanks to the operators' investments in expansion of fiber networks. The share of cable lines will increase from 11.1% in 2016 to 14.3% in 2020, thanks to DOCSIS 3.0 network upgrades and multiplay offers.
Bulgaria: Operators' Focus on Multiplay Paired with Fixed and Mobile Broadband Rollouts Will Drive Growth provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Bulgaria today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2020. It delivers deep quantitative and qualitative insight into Bulgaria's telecom market, analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing risk factors, based on proprietary data from Pyramid Research's databases.
The Country Intelligence Report provides in-depth analysis of the following:
- Regional context: telecom market size and trends in Bulgaria compared with other countries in the region.
- Economic, demographic and political context in Bulgaria.
- The regulatory environment and trends: a review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
- A demand profile: analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, mobile data.
- Service evolution: a look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2013 to 2020.
- The competitive landscape: an examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
- In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice and mobile data services: a quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
- Main opportunities: this section details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the Bulgarian telecommunications market
-Gain in-depth analysis of current strategies and future trends of Bulgaria's telecommunications market, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format, to build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
-Understand the factors behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Bulgaria's mobile communications, fixed telephony and broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares, to align product offerings and strategies to meet customers' demand.
-Leverage the graphical information (more than 20 charts and tables in the report based on the Pyramid Research forecast products), to gain an overview of the Bulgarian telecom market.
-Analysis of key telecom players in the markets and major business strategies being adopted by them, to identify the opportunities to improve the market share.
-Explore opportunities to align your product strategies and offerings to meet the requirements and succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Bulgaria.